# Twenty Percent

I realized a couple of days ago that I'd never blogged about what Software Carpentry needs to accomplish in order to change the practice of science fundamentally and permanently. In a nutshell, we need to convert a fifth of scientists to our way of thinking. Once we do that, the odds are better than 50-50 that every time someone sends a paper out for review, at least one reviewer will ask hard questions about how the computational work was done. I get that number by assuming:

Number of Reviewers | Fraction of Papers |

2 | 10% |

3 | 40% |

4 | 40% |

5 | 10% |

which means the probability that *none* of a paper's reviewers will ask the right questions is 0.1×0.8^{2} + 0.4×0.8^{3} + 0.4×0.8^{4} + 0.1×0.8^{5} = 46.5%. It's a grossly simplistic model, but at least it gives us something to shoot for.

In the wake of posts about Shopify's support for white nationalists and DataCamp's attempts to cover up sexual harassment

I have had to disable comments on this blog. Please email me if you'd like to get in touch.